Comments on: U.S. Casual Gaming – only $52 million?

By: Rachel

Rachel — Sat, 04 Nov 2006 01:33:46 +0000

There are many errors in their calculations (omitting advertising, not a good understanding of Real’s business model) and the sample size of the survey is small – so I would not use this number at all

By: PhilSteinmeyer.com » Blog Archive » More Badly Written Articles

PhilSteinmeyer.com » Blog Archive » More Badly Written Articles — Wed, 07 Jun 2006 03:47:18 +0000

[...] Phil Steinmeyer’s rumblings on the game biz, programming, and life « U.S. Casual Gaming – only $52 million? [...]

By: kim pallister

kim pallister — Tue, 30 May 2006 06:57:33 +0000

All of the analyst community is struggling to get a handle on what ‘online’ means, and it’s hard when the target keeps shifting. This was a step in the right direction for NPD, and hopefully they’ll improve next year with feedback.

By: Phil Steinmeyer

Phil Steinmeyer — Fri, 26 May 2006 21:09:58 +0000

OK, now I see.

NPD’s wording is really sloppy, which is why I imagine some of the news sites got it wrong.

At the beginning of the linked article, they say, “online subscriptions to PC games and gaming web sites were estimated to account for $344 million” – clearly talking about subscriptions.

Then they break that down to $292 million for ‘game-specific subscriptions’ (i.e. MMORPGs), and $52 million for casual [subscriptions]. But the sentence they use to describe the latter is somewhat misleading

“According to the research, paid casual gaming sites, such as those allowing users unlimited play of a variety of games from services like Pogo.com or RealOne Arcade, reached sales of $52 million in 2005 with about 1.05 million paid subscribers”

And the CNN article just shortened that to $52 million in sales for casual sites, rather than $52 million in SUBSCRIPTION sales for those sites (with presumably a rather larger figure for the more traditional, digital download sales, which are NOT mentioned in the NPD press release).

It’s odd – NPD is finally paying attention to casual game sites (sorta), but they’re only looking at the smaller segment of that market (subscriptions), rather than the more meaty ‘download and sell for $19.99′ category.

Oh well…

By: PJayTycy

PJayTycy — Fri, 26 May 2006 18:31:45 +0000

Phil, this is the npd press release:
http://www.npd.com/dynamic/releases/press_060525.html

It doesn’t contain more info though.

By: Donavon Keithley

Donavon Keithley — Fri, 26 May 2006 00:33:51 +0000

Yeah, $52m, 1.05m subscribers — sounds about right.

However, take a look at http://tinyurl.com/kpusf: “NPD analyst Anita Frazier said digital downloads appeared to have contributed about 3 percent of total PC market sales in 2005, which would amount to about $42 million.”

All I can figure is maybe that’s a measure of conventional retail games electronically distributed.

By: Phil Steinmeyer

Phil Steinmeyer — Fri, 26 May 2006 00:09:00 +0000

I think this is the relevant Gamasutra link:

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=9455

Yes, $52 million in casual subscription revenue is more sensible, but then, if that’s what NPD was estimating, they’ve missed the presumably bigger part of the industry – casual game downloads.

I went to NPD’s site looking for the press release these articles were based on, but couldn’t find it.

By: Russell Carroll

Russell Carroll — Thu, 25 May 2006 23:52:59 +0000

Gamasutra shows the $52 million as being revenue from subscription services, which would mean that non-subscription sales were not broken out. It would be a good explanation.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=7832

By: John Nelson

John Nelson — Thu, 25 May 2006 17:45:23 +0000

Phil, I have to agree with you on this estimate. For so long the casual, and serious game industry has not been considered in estimates that it will take a fw years before the numbers start showing realistically.

By: Donavon Keithley

Donavon Keithley — Thu, 25 May 2006 17:27:51 +0000

A quick addendum for clarity:

RealArcade (minus GamePass) and Zylom get most or all of their revenue from actual game sales AFAICT. Gamehouse is a mix of sales, advertising, and mobile games. Mr. Goodliving is all mobile games.