Comments on: Super Bowl - What are the odds? http://www.philsteinmeyer.com/48/super-bowl-what-are-the-odds/ Phil Steinmeyer's rumblings on the game biz, programming, and life Sun, 07 Sep 2008 17:28:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Phil Steinmeyer http://www.philsteinmeyer.com/48/super-bowl-what-are-the-odds/#comment-137 Phil Steinmeyer Sat, 11 Feb 2006 22:36:45 +0000 http://www.philsteinmeyer.com/48/super-bowl-what-are-the-odds/#comment-137 I don't argue with #1 or #2, except to attribute a bit more of the dominance of the 70s Steelers, 80s 49ers and 90s Cowboys to their players and management, rather than specific players (not discounting the players, just saying that it takes exceptional management to maintain the excellence, and keep the players focused after the first Super Bowl win. But yeah, I was basically trying to prove that Super Bowl victory patterns in the last 40 years are far from normal, and, as a corellary, teams like my boyhood favorites, the Cardinals (football) are atrociously bad not because of a series of misfortunes, but because of a pattern of incompetence. I've got no analysis here of the 'outside-the-bell-curve' status of bad teams like the Cardinals and Saints, but they've got to be at least as far to the left of the bell curve as the Cowboys and Steelers are to the right. I don’t argue with #1 or #2, except to attribute a bit more of the dominance of the 70s Steelers, 80s 49ers and 90s Cowboys to their players and management, rather than specific players (not discounting the players, just saying that it takes exceptional management to maintain the excellence, and keep the players focused after the first Super Bowl win.

But yeah, I was basically trying to prove that Super Bowl victory patterns in the last 40 years are far from normal, and, as a corellary, teams like my boyhood favorites, the Cardinals (football) are atrociously bad not because of a series of misfortunes, but because of a pattern of incompetence. I’ve got no analysis here of the ‘outside-the-bell-curve’ status of bad teams like the Cardinals and Saints, but they’ve got to be at least as far to the left of the bell curve as the Cowboys and Steelers are to the right.

]]> By: Tuck http://www.philsteinmeyer.com/48/super-bowl-what-are-the-odds/#comment-136 Tuck Sat, 11 Feb 2006 21:07:23 +0000 http://www.philsteinmeyer.com/48/super-bowl-what-are-the-odds/#comment-136 The amount of money winning the SB brings in is trivial in the grand scheme of things. What the original post fails to model is that teams stay reasonably intact over a short (3-5 years) period of time. This was especially true before the last 10 years. The Steelers of the 70s won 4 of 6, the 49ers of the 80s won 4 in 9 years, the Cowboys of the 90s won 3 in 4 years. In each of those cases, the team was fairly stable and was dominant. What this means in terms of statistics is that 1) Your model is flawed. Distribution is not random because teams tend to remain intact, and 2) The current statistical sample is way too small. 40 Super Bowls doesn't tell you anything. After 1000 Super Bowls, I would guess that you will see a near normal distribution (as if you had done it randomly). By then, every team would have had a chance to go through a dominant period. The amount of money winning the SB brings in is trivial in the grand scheme of things.

What the original post fails to model is that teams stay reasonably intact over a short (3-5 years) period of time. This was especially true before the last 10 years. The Steelers of the 70s won 4 of 6, the 49ers of the 80s won 4 in 9 years, the Cowboys of the 90s won 3 in 4 years. In each of those cases, the team was fairly stable and was dominant.

What this means in terms of statistics is that
1) Your model is flawed. Distribution is not random because teams tend to remain intact, and
2) The current statistical sample is way too small. 40 Super Bowls doesn’t tell you anything. After 1000 Super Bowls, I would guess that you will see a near normal distribution (as if you had done it randomly). By then, every team would have had a chance to go through a dominant period.

]]> By: Pag http://www.philsteinmeyer.com/48/super-bowl-what-are-the-odds/#comment-135 Pag Sat, 11 Feb 2006 16:11:59 +0000 http://www.philsteinmeyer.com/48/super-bowl-what-are-the-odds/#comment-135 I'm not a football fan by any mean, but there's also the possibility that what brings the victory is money. Winning the Superbowl (and performing well in general) brings more money to the team, which can hire better player, who play better, which brings more money and so on. Being in a large city with lots of football fans would certainly help on this front too. I’m not a football fan by any mean, but there’s also the possibility that what brings the victory is money. Winning the Superbowl (and performing well in general) brings more money to the team, which can hire better player, who play better, which brings more money and so on. Being in a large city with lots of football fans would certainly help on this front too.

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